If You’re Planning, You’re Guessing
The way I look at it, long-term business planning and forecasting is really just guessing…fantasy.
Why do I think this way? Well, there are just too many variables outside of what you can actually control: market conditions, your competition, your customers, the darn economy, etc. In business school and in all business journals you’re told to ‘write a business plan.’ What’s the point? The problem with it is this:
Writing a business plan makes you feel in control of things you really can’t control.
So much effort is made stressing about business plans, financial projections, and stratagem…but these are all just guesses! When you start to think about it like that, there’s really no need to stress.
You’re on the ‘highway to the danger zone’ when you start turning guesses into work. When you plan, you let the past drive the future, it’s like wearing blinders. Planning conflicts with improv and innovation.
Business is all about improvising. You have to be able to take on an opportunity when it comes along.
And think about this: When do you have the most information about something? When you’re right in the middle of it. This is why long-term plans are so messed up, planning something long-term before you’ve actually done it doesn’t make any sense, before is actually the worst time to make an important decision.
Now, you should always be thinking about the future and how you’re going to overcome impending hurdles. You just don’t need to feel like you have to write it down and become fixated over it. Am I right: Plans that are written down and longer than a page or two just wind up in some filing cabinet that you never look at again?
Quit guessing. Just decide what you’re going to do this week. Stop worrying about this year. Start working on the next most important thing that needs to be done.
Working without a plan might seem scary, but following a plan blindly that has no correlation with reality is even more terrifying.
We’re winging it here at Hillsports. We’ve got our ticket, we’re on the plane and it has taken off. We’ll pick up a nicer shirt, shaving cream, and a toothbrush once we land.






